Significant Decline in Load Posts – DAT’s Latest Insights

February 21, 2024

Significant Drop in Load Posts Hits New Low

In recent weeks, the trucking industry has witnessed a notable decrease in the number of loads available. According to the latest data from DAT One, there’s been a 17.6% drop in load postings for the week of February 11, reaching a count of 647,166. This decline marks the fourth consecutive week of reduced load availability.

Compared to the same period last year, the numbers have plummeted by 60%, indicating a significant year-over-year decrease. Particularly concerning is the fact that this is the lowest number of postings for vans, reefers, and flatbeds seen in over eight years for week seven.

Detailed Breakdown of Load Types

The specifics of the decline are quite telling:

Van loads have decreased by 21.3% from the previous week, standing at 264,181, and showing a 61% decline compared to last year.
Reefer loads are down to 114,372, marking a 25.5% decrease week over week and a 61% fall year over year.
Flatbed loads have reached 268,613, falling by 9.3% compared to the previous week and 59% lower than last year.

Changes in Truck Posts and Load-to-Truck Ratios

Following a slight increase in week six, the number of trucks posted on DAT One has dropped by 7.5% to 328,828. This decline aligns with the trends observed throughout this year, representing a 21% decrease from last year and 22% lower than the figures recorded in 2020.

The breakdown is as follows:

Van equipment posts are at 218,356, down by 6.4% and 20% lower year over year.
Reefer equipment has decreased to 58,988, a drop of 11.1% and 29% lower compared to last year.
Flatbed equipment posts stand at 40,576, showing a 7.8% decrease and 13% lower than last year.

Load-to-Truck Ratios Experience a Downward Trend

The average load-to-truck ratios for vans, reefers, and flatbeds have reached record lows for week seven, indicating a weaker demand in the truckload capacity on the spot market.

Van ratios have fallen to 1.2, down from 1.4 the previous week.
Reefer ratios are now at 1.9, a decrease from 2.3.
Flatbed ratios have dropped to 6.5 from 6.7.

Trends in Benchmark Rates

The week of February saw a continuation in the softening of benchmark rates.

The national van rate now stands at $1.60 net fuel, a 5-cent decrease. The broker-to-carrier rate is $2.08 (including fuel: 48 cents), while the contract rate is down by 2 cents at $2.03 net fuel.
The reefer rate has fallen to $1.90 net fuel, dropping by 9 cents. Its broker-to-carrier rate is $2.42 (fuel: 52 cents), and the contract rate is now $2.39 net fuel, down 2 cents.
The flatbed rate is now $1.93 net fuel, decreasing by 2 cents, with the broker-to-carrier rate at $2.50 (fuel: 57 cents) and the contract rate at $2.52 net fuel, down 8 cents.

Economic Factors Influencing the Trucking Industry

Experts predict a potential upswing in freight rates, though there is no consensus on the timing. January, usually a slow month post-holidays, saw a temporary boost in spot rates due to unusually cold weather impacting road conditions and truck availability. However, this spike was short-lived.

Key economic indicators have been impacted by the cold weather. The Federal Reserve cited weather as a contributing factor to a decline in industrial production. Housing starts fell significantly in January, reaching their lowest since August. The Cass Freight report titled “Frozen Freight” aptly summarized the market conditions, indicating declines in both shipments and expenditures.

Full-Year Trends and Predictions

The Cass Shipments index fell by 5.5% in 2023, a significant change after a slight rise in 2022. Trucking business owners have faced increased operating costs, with inflation continuing to rise. Freight rates are currently similar to those in March 2020, pre-pandemic levels. However, operating costs remain elevated and are unlikely to return to 2020 levels.

The overall forecast for trucking in 2024 is cautiously optimistic. While improvements in the industry are expected, they may not be rapid or significant. Trucking business owners are advised to continue managing costs effectively and being selective about loads to ensure survival in this challenging market.