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The world of commercial trailers is witnessing some interesting trends as October’s preliminary net trailer orders demonstrate a nominal increase from September, reaching 35,300 units. However, when compared to the previous year, there’s a noticeable decline of over 26%.
This data, reported by ACT Research, offers a glimpse into the evolving dynamics of the trailer industry.
According to Chamblee Ryan of ACT Research, the peak order season is just beginning. But, when adjusted for seasonality, October’s figures drop to 26,200 units. These numbers suggest that while there is positive momentum, the future still holds a degree of uncertainty. It’s important to note that these are preliminary estimates and may vary by +/-5% from the final tally.
Jennifer McNealy, the director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research, points out that the current 26,200 seasonally adjusted orders show a sequential drop of about 9%. She emphasizes that while the industry has seen robust orders in the last two months, it doesn’t necessarily secure a strong performance for the entire year. It’s still early in the order season, and predicting the full year’s outcome remains challenging.
Mixed messages are emerging from the data, with cancellations remaining high, especially in the platform and tank segments. However, backlogs in the industry are generally healthy, particularly in specialty segments. McNealy notes that the BL/BU ratio (backlog/build-up ratio) is well over five months on aggregate. Some specialty segments are so booked that they have no available build slots until late 2024.
When discussing the backlog trajectory, McNealy indicated that based on preliminary October orders and corresponding OEM build plans, the trailer backlog is expected to increase by approximately 7,300 units, reaching around 146,100 units. However, as this forecast is based on estimated data, the actual reported backlogs might vary once the final data is collected.
The trailer manufacturing industry stands at a complex intersection of positive momentum and uncertain future trends. The preliminary data for October show both growth and caution. The industry’s resilience in the face of these mixed signals will be crucial as it navigates through the peak order season and beyond. As we await the final October results later this month, stakeholders in the commercial trailer industry will be watching closely to gauge the market’s direction and adapt their strategies accordingly.
Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to analyze and report on these important industry trends.
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